{"id":9411,"date":"2025-02-14T09:37:15","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T08:37:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bordeaux-population-health.center\/?p=9411"},"modified":"2025-04-14T13:08:03","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T11:08:03","slug":"impact-de-scenarios-de-prevention-du-tabagisme-sur-le-fardeau-de-linfarctus-du-myocarde-en-2035-en-france","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bordeaux-population-health.center\/fr\/impact-de-scenarios-de-prevention-du-tabagisme-sur-le-fardeau-de-linfarctus-du-myocarde-en-2035-en-france\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact de scenarios de pr\u00e9vention du tabagisme sur le fardeau de l\u2019infarctus du myocarde en 2035 en France"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Photo de Mathew MacQuarrie sur Unsplash<\/p><\/div>\n

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\u00a0En collaboration avec des \u00e9quipes de Sant\u00e9 Publique France, l’\u00e9quipe BIOSTAT du BPH mod\u00e9lise quatre sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9duction de la proportion de fumeurs de 18 \u00e0 75 ans dans la population fran\u00e7aise entre 2024 et\u00a0 2035, \u00a0le tabac \u00e9tant l\u2019un des principaux facteurs de risque de l\u2019infarctus du myocarde<\/strong><\/h1>\n

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L\u2019infarctus du myocarde<\/strong> pr\u00e9sente un lourd fardeau pour la sant\u00e9 publique<\/strong> en France et le tabac<\/strong> constitue l\u2019un des principaux facteurs de risque<\/strong> de cette maladie avec la particularit\u00e9 d\u2019avoir un impact cardiovasculaire imm\u00e9diat<\/strong> chez les fumeurs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0Mais ce qui est int\u00e9ressant c\u2019est que <\/span>la r\u00e9duction du risque cardiovasculaire est effective d\u00e8s l\u2019arr\u00eat du tabagisme<\/strong>. C\u2019est donc en cela que l\u2019infarctus du myocarde constitue un bon mod\u00e8le pour \u00e9tudier l\u2019impact de sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9duction du tabagisme en France.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Photo de jesse orrico sur Unsplash<\/p><\/div>\n

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Dans ce travail, des membres de l\u2019\u00e9quipe BIOSTAT du BPH<\/strong> ont mod\u00e9lis\u00e9 quatre sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9duction de la proportion de fumeurs de 18-75 ans dans la population fran\u00e7aise entre 2024 et\u00a0 2035.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2192 Le premier sc\u00e9nario<\/strong>, dit standard, reconstitue la tendance actuelle de r\u00e9duction du tabagisme en France<\/strong> \u00e0 savoir une r\u00e9duction de la proportion de fumeurs de 1%<\/strong> par an<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2192 Le deuxi\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario<\/strong> simule un doublement de la r\u00e9duction de fumeurs<\/strong> par rapport au pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent sc\u00e9nario soit 2 % par an<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2192 Le troisi\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario<\/strong> applique l\u2019un des objectifs pr\u00e9liminaires du PNLT (Plan national de lutte contre le tabac)<\/strong> ciblant une proportion de fumeurs \u00e0 22 % en 2027<\/strong>, soit une r\u00e9duction de 10 % par an<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2192 Le quatri\u00e8me et dernier sc\u00e9nario<\/strong> est le sc\u00e9nario dit \u00ab\u00a0extr\u00eame<\/strong>\u00ab\u00a0, qui suppose l\u2019arr\u00eat complet du tabagisme en France<\/strong> en 2024, il permet\u00a0 d\u2019estimer le gain maximal possible<\/strong>. Ce sc\u00e9nario permettrait de pr\u00e9venir 103 000 cas d\u2019infarctus du myocarde<\/strong>, 12 800 d\u00e9c\u00e8s<\/strong> par infarctus du myocarde et 653 000 d\u00e9c\u00e8s toutes causes en 2035<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Figure 1 : Estimation du taux d’incidence de l’infarctus du myocarde dans la population fran\u00e7aise par \u00e2ge en 2035 pour les hommes (courbes du haut) et les femmes (courbes du bas) selon les sc\u00e9narios de pr\u00e9vention : 1% des fumeurs arr\u00eatent de fumer par an en France (ligne continue), environ 9,9% des fumeurs arr\u00eatent de fumer par an (ligne pointill\u00e9e), et aucun fumeur \u00e0 partir de 2024 (ligne pointill\u00e9e).<\/p><\/div>\n

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Au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019impact sur le nombre de cas et de d\u00e9c\u00e8s, une r\u00e9duction de la pr\u00e9valence du tabagisme dans la population entra\u00eenerait un recul de l\u2019\u00e2ge moyen de survenue de la maladie<\/strong> de 2,8 ans \u00e0 4,1 ans chez les hommes et de 1,1 ans \u00e0 2,0 ans chez les femmes.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ces r\u00e9sultats confirment la pertinence d\u2019objectifs chiffr\u00e9s ambitieux<\/strong> en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9duction du tabagisme.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Lire l’\u00e9tude<\/div>\n

Kuhn, J., Oli\u00e9, V., Grave, C., Le Strat, Y., Bonaldi, C., & Joly, P. (2024). Impact of Smoking Reduction Scenarios on the Burden of Myocardial Infarction in the French Population Until 2035. Clinical Epidemiology<\/em>, 605-616<\/p>\n

DOI: 10.2147\/CLEP.S440815<\/p>\n

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Contact<\/div>\n

pierre.joly@u-bordeaux.fr<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u00a0En collaboration avec des \u00e9quipes de Sant\u00e9 Publique France, l’\u00e9quipe BIOSTAT du BPH mod\u00e9lise quatre sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9duction de la proportion de fumeurs de 18 \u00e0 75 ans dans la population fran\u00e7aise entre 2024 et\u00a0 2035, \u00a0le tabac \u00e9tant l\u2019un des principaux facteurs de risque de l\u2019infarctus du myocarde     […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1419,"featured_media":9413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication-majeure"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nImpact de scenarios de pr\u00e9vention du tabagisme sur le fardeau de l\u2019infarctus du myocarde en 2035 en France | Bordeaux population health<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L'\u00e9quipe BIOSTAT 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